Global warming
| Posted by Arthur Sigurssen in Science section |
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When the global warming debate first heated up in the late 1980s, scientists warned that the Earth our grandkids walked might be cooking like a fried egg on an El Paso sidewalk. The prediction ran like this: Gathering levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere would trap heat, causing a rapid warming and damaging the atmosphere, the oceans and the economy.
And our grandchildren could face drought, fire and flood -- essentially a list of biblical catastrophes. These days, after 18 straight months of record temperatures, the concern is not about the next generation. It's about next year. And 18 record-setting months are only one of the warning signs.
1998 saw the 20th straight year of above-normal surface temperatures, 0.4 degrees F hotter than 1995, the previous record.
In 1998, the hottest year since scientists began keeping track of such things in the mid-1800s, global temperatures were 1.04 degrees F above the average for 1961-1990.
The 10 warmest years in the 150-year history of recorded temperatures have all occurred since 1983.
In Alaska and other polar regions, the permafrost is melting and whole forests are dying due to an increase of insects associated with the warming.
There is no proof we’re on the verge of dangerous—let alone catastrophic—warming. Climate varies, after all, just like weather. The American Geophysical Union, a group of earth scientists, warned last week that warming is a predictable consequence of putting so much carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. “There is no known geologic precedent for the transfer of carbon from the Earth’s crust to atmospheric carbon dioxide, in quantities comparable to the burning of fossil fuels, without simultaneous changes in other parts of the carbon cycle and climate system.”
One cause of worry is recent evidence that climate is less stable than once assumed. A few thousand years ago, the average temperature apparently soared by 9 to 11 degrees Fahrenheit in just five years at least in Greenland.
That’s what we call mighty flighty
As The Why Files digs out from yet another snowstorm, the idea of selling snow shovels and swapping skis for swim suits sounds soothing. But global warming, caused by an increasing concentration of carbon dioxide, is a distinctly discomforting thought, since it’s likely to bring rising sea levels, droughts and fires that disturb agriculture, economies and ecosystems alike.
Is the ongoing heat wave the long-sought “signal” of global warming? And what’s this business about abrupt changes in past climates? So slip on your shades, slap on some sun screen, and scurry along on an electronic expedition to the heart of the warming debate.
Warming: Here at last?
If all the news about soaring temperatures is starting to make a global warming believer out of you, join the club. Those ominous temperature charts. The fact that, according to James Hansen of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, virtually the entire globe was warmer than average last year.
It’s enough to make you want to buy air-conditioner stock, or invent a new solar cell or some device to make energy without burning stuff.
Yet despite the warming trend, a surprising mini-dispute remains about whether the atmosphere is really warming at all.
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